The Role of Kharg Island

Kharg Island (or Khark) is located about 25 km off the Iranian coast, near the port city of Bandar-e Genaveh in the province of Bushehr. With an area of only around 20 km², it represents a key point for the Islamic Republic of Iran: ninety percent of the country’s oil production flows through this island, which is equipped with facilities for loading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs). It also serves as a critical stronghold in Iran’s energy development, as it houses large storage tanks for crude oil and natural gas.

For this reason, one might assume that Israel would launch a full-scale attack on the point upon which Iran’s economy so heavily depends. So why hasn’t Israel attacked? That remains the central question. One possible reason is that such a move could trigger a total counterattack by Iran, in a logic of zero-sum, potentially culminating in strikes against the oil facilities of Arab countries—particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Added to this is the spatial, economic, and military projection the island exerts over the Strait of Hormuz (Tangeh-ye Hormoz in Farsi), which could allow Iranian forces to block the route through which approximately 26% of the world’s oil production flows.

Putting this channel—and the main economic lifeline of the Arab states—at risk seems to be a price Israel may not be willing to pay. A regime on the brink of collapse could launch desperate attacks, with nothing left to lose. Moreover, despite the distance and Tehran’s apparent weakness, Iran remains a vast country with a relatively significant military capacity, as has been demonstrated in recent attacks.

In this context, all that remains is to observe Israel’s next moves, as it currently holds the initiative. If its goal is strictly limited to the nuclear program, the conflict could be over within a couple of weeks. But if its true objectives go beyond that, the escalation may extend beyond the Gulf.

As with the beginning of every armed conflict, all we can do is wait.